自从教育无线电广播先驱玛丽萨默维尔(Mary Somerville)向听众保证“电视(Television)不会持续存在”以来。这是昙花一现”，小工具专家们一直错得离谱——尤其是当他们与这个问题息息相关时。在这里，我们看看五个令人难以置信的虚假保证，这些保证是出于最好的意图、经验的好处，而且准确性低于狗吠狗翻译的星座。
1. “由于消费者对 N-Gage QD 和我们的最新游戏的热烈反应，我们相信我们在引领移动游戏世界的成功将继续下去” (“Thanks to the enthusiastic consumer response to the N-Gage QD and our latest titles, we’re confident that our success in leading the mobile gaming world will continue”)
，诺基亚游戏高级副总裁 Ilkka Raiskinen(Ilkka Raiskinen, Nokia’s Senior Vice President of Games)。
如果有证据表明游戏高管生活在一个让尼克松政府(Nixon Administration)看起来像一个学龄前手指画小组的精神病般的自欺欺人的世界中，那就是这句话。N-Gage 过去、现在和（除非得到耶稣基督归来(Jesus Christ Returned)的支持）在游戏行业永远都是一个笑话。上述引述来自诺基亚(Nokia)2004年9 月(September 2004)发布的新闻稿，庆祝他们的第 100 万台游戏机出货。请注意重要的词“运输”而不是“销售”——诺基亚(” – Nokia)习惯于在没有人愿意购买的情况下以自己制造的数量为荣，大多数企业认为这是“坏事”。
更糟糕的是，这是他们第二次在 N-Gage 上进行尝试——他们声称在系统发布后的第一个两周内售出了 40 万张套牌。他们实际上只卖了六千。这不仅是糟糕的——那绝对是、令人震惊的、令人震惊的糟糕——糟糕到Gamestop和 EB 在三天后开始向买家退还每单位 100 美元。了解：这款游戏机做得非常糟糕，商店退款了，因为它的整个存在都被破坏了。
上面的引述是双重悲惨的，因为它庆祝了 N-Gage QD，它在最初的 N-Gage 后仅六个月发布。当你快速发布升级版时，你就会承认前身是多么糟糕，而最初的 N-Gage 充满了设计缺陷，它似乎是由听过人们谈论游戏男孩(Game Boy)的人建造的。电梯一次，但从未真正见过。但大多数人已经彻底否定了这个系统，而大多数“狂热的消费者”甚至从未听说过 QD。
2. Segway 成为“与 PC 一样重要”的(Segway to be “as big a deal as the PC”)
史蒂夫乔布斯，你可能听说过他。(Steve Jobs, who you might have heard of.)
这种令人难以置信的保证，在不亚于时代杂志的出版物中进行了报道，是(Time)Segway发布前的典型过度炒作。专家和专业人士将它建造得如此之高，以至于制造商将帝国(Empire State)大厦用作脚凳，而且很明显，如果在 2001 年12 月 3(December 3rd)日宣布治愈癌症的方法，则必须等到赛格威公司(Segway Incorporated)结束谈话。考虑到现实世界对“革命性”产品的反应，我们只能得出结论，史蒂夫乔布斯(Steve Jobs)和其他人所接触的预览模型涂有LSD 和(LSD-and-sugar)糖霜。
事实仍然是，Segway应该成功——它是一种无需在某个地方找到一个血腥的悍马大小的空间就可以在城市中穿行的方式，它具有出色的工程设计和巧妙的创新。它只是(Just)。看起来(Looks)。愚蠢(Stupid)。不能保证“酷因素”（如果有什么可能的话，那就是这个同音的人类助手），当集体“热(Hot)还是不热？” 判决出来了，它以一万个相同的单口相声笑话的形式出现。赛格威公司(Segway Incorporated)仍然长期参与其中，研究和发布改进的版本，以解决他们发现的每一个技术问题 - 并只是希望人们在Segway HT被派去与Sinclair C5玩之前克服自己并开始该死的事情。
3. “我们的消费者比以往任何时候都更多地使用 PSP 作为视频播放器，他们渴望更多的内容，尤其是短视频” (“Our consumers, who are utilizing PSP as a video player more than ever, are thirsting for more content, particularly short-form videos”)
，索尼计算机娱乐美国公司销售和业务发展高级副总裁 Phil Rosenberg。(Phil Rosenberg, senior vice president of sales and business development, Sony Computer Entertainment America.)
另一种公关说法(PR-speak)，就目前而言绝对正确，而不是更远一微米。例如：如果所有五个Atari Lynx用户都开始使用他们的古董手机作为书挡，那么可能是“ Atari Lynx的消费者比以往任何时候都更多地将他们的系统用作文学设备”，但这并不意味着有很多，或者这是个好主意。
UMD Movies 彻底失败了，甚至连沃尔玛(Walmart)都拒绝再进货了——我不知道你是否注意到了，但那些家伙什么都卖。大部分的失败可以直接归咎于索尼(Sony)。像往常一样，他们只是假设人们会购买他们的产品（显然在Betamax和Minidisc之后患有健忘症）并立即着手削弱他们自己的产品以保护他们即将赚到的所有钱。您无法在电视上播放UMD电影，因为那样您就不会购买DVD和蓝光光盘(Blu-ray)。索尼(Sony)真的希望你每部电影都买三遍，当用户对此感到不安时，真的很震惊。为了防止盗版，没有可用的空白光盘或刻录机——我敢肯定，这一举措将盗版UMD光盘的破解延迟了三分钟，也许整整四分钟。同时永久地削弱整个用户群。
当有人发现盗版问题不仅可以通过将游戏复制到PSP记忆棒上轻松进行，而且它们实际上比在愚蠢的官方UMD光盘上运行得更快时，盗版问题从糟糕变成了令人尴尬的愚蠢。(FASTER)哎哟! UMD电影中唯一的增长产业是索尼(Sony)不想要的，日本色情电影的市场。索尼(Sony)将其描述为“非常不受欢迎”，可能忘记了成人视频是VHS将它们压扁的重要原因。虽然除了真实地重现那种“偷窥”的感觉之外，为什么有人会想在屏幕上看色情片，他们必须眯着眼才能看到任何东西，但目前还不清楚。
4. “我们很高兴 HD DVD 格式得到派拉蒙影业、环球影业、新线电影和华纳兄弟工作室的独立认可。” (“We are delighted that the HD DVD format has been independently endorsed by Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema, and Warner Bros. Studios.”)
东芝公司总裁兼首席执行官冈村正志先生。(Mr. Tadashi Okamura, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation.)
HD-DVD : 银牌得主，最近的格式战争，除了金牌之外的所有人都被取出并射中头部的比赛。HD-DVD似乎有了一个良好的开端——这句话包含了一些非常有名的名字，这是事实，而且是事实。这只留下了一个叫做“全部真相”的小东西，这就是事情变得有趣的地方。还有许多其他大牌也宣誓效忠蓝光(Blu-Ray)，比如沃尔特迪斯尼(Walt Disney)、20世纪福克斯(Century Fox)、布埃纳维斯塔(Buena Vista)影业——奇怪的是，索尼影业(Sony Pictures)似乎不愿意制作HD-DVD(HD-DVDs)。
舞台是为一场激战而准备的，除了一件小事——客户根本不在乎。大(Big)企业似乎真的很困惑，苦工们没有排队，恳求有机会以稍微不同、更昂贵的格式再次购买他们所有的电影。网络上来来回回的泡沫技术分析完全不知道这样一个事实，即除非您是配备精密显微镜的T800 ，否则(T800)蓝光(Blu-Ray)和HD-DVD之间绝对没有区别。事实上，对于普通人来说，两者都必须非常努力地证明我们已经拥有的DVD(DVDs)有什么问题，而且“因为卖新东西的人这么说”并没有削减它。
华纳兄弟(Warner Bros)意识到他们发动了一场战争而没有人来，因此采取了果断行动。越来越昂贵和毫无意义的冲突不必“赢得”，它必须尽快结束(OVER)。2008年1 月(January 2008)，他们通过跳回蓝光(Blu-Ray)阵营，以HD-DVD(HD-DVDs)中带有 WB 标志的巨大匕首的形式结束了它。从那时起，HD-DVD就是(HD-DVD)泰坦尼克号(Titanic)的快动作再现，加了额外的冰块，一个月后东芝(Toshiba)举起了投降的旗帜。
5. “我们将提供一切必要的资源，以确保成功发射。” ( “We will make every necessary resource available to ensure a successful launch.”)
Carl Freer，吉兹蒙多联合创始人兼董事长。(Carl Freer, Co-founder and Chairman, Gizmondo.)
当卡尔(Carl)这么说的时候，他并没有在胡闹。Elite London发布办公室，一个由漂亮模特组成的完整机构，破坏了Ferarris和瑞典黑手党(Mafia)——这不仅仅是一个控制台发布，这是一部詹姆斯邦德(James Bond)电影。Gizmondo公司，对于那些还没有嘲笑记忆的人来说，已经成为“完全疯狂的消费”的代名词，它只是一次“成功的发布”，就像《水世界(Waterworld)》是一部“成功的赚钱电影”一样。
该公司在亏损超过三亿美元而销售不到两万五千台后破产了。换个角度来看，他们本可以通过在每个装有一万美元的纸板箱上写下“Gizmondo”并在街角分发它们来以更低的成本实现更大的销售额。
The 5 Worst Reassurances in Tech History
Ever since eduсational radio broadcasting pioneer Mary Somerville аssured lіѕteners that “Televisіon won’t last. It’s a flash in thе pan”, gadget gurus have been spectacularly wrong – especially when they have a stake in the issue. Here we look at five fabulously falsе аssurances made with the bеst оf intеntions, the benefit of experience, and less accuracy than a horoscope translated by a barking dog.
1. “Thanks to the enthusiastic consumer response to the N-Gage QD and our latest titles, we’re confident that our success in leading the mobile gaming world will continue”
Ilkka Raiskinen, Nokia’s Senior Vice President of Games.
If ever there was proof that gaming executives live in a psychotically self-delusional world that makes the Nixon Administration look like a preschool fingerpainting group, it’s this statement. The N-Gage was, is, and (barring support from Jesus Christ Returned) always will be a joke in the gaming industry. The above quote is from a press release from Nokia in September 2004, celebrating the shipping of their millionth console. Note the vital word “shipping” instead of “sale” – Nokia has a habit of acting proud of how many units they build when nobody wants to buy them, which most businesses regard as a “bad thing.”
Worse, this is the second time they’d tried this with the N-Gage – they claimed that four hundred thousand decks had sold in the first fortnight after the systems launch. They’d actually only sold six thousand. That isn’t just bad – that’ absolutely, staggeringly, face-breakingly bad – so bad that Gamestop and EB started refunding buyers $100 per unit three days later. Understand: this console did so badly that stores refunded money because its entire existence was broken.
The above quote is doubly tragic as it celebrates the N-Gage QD, which was released only six months after the original N-Gage. When you release an upgrade that quickly you’re admitting how crappily made the predecessor was, and the original N-Gage was so full of design flaws it seemed to have been built by somebody who’d heard people talking about a Game Boy in an elevator once but had never actually seen one. But most people had already utterly dismissed the system, and most of the “enthusiastic consumers” never even heard of the QD.
2. Segway to be “as big a deal as the PC”
Steve Jobs, who you might have heard of.
This incredible assurance, reported in no less a publication than Time magazine, was typical of the hyper-hype leading up to the release of the Segway. Pundits and professionals built it up so high the makers used the Empire State building as a footrest, and it became pretty clear that if the cure for cancer was announced on December 3rd 2001 it would have had to wait until Segway Incorporated were finished talking. Considering the real-world reaction to the “revolutionary” product, we can only conclude the preview model Steve Jobs and others were exposed to was coated in LSD-and-sugar frosting.
The fact remains that the Segway should succeed – it’s a way of getting around cities without having to find a bloody Hummer-sized space somewhere, it features excellent engineering and ingenious innovations. It Just. Looks. Stupid. The “cool factor” cannot be guaranteed (and if anything could have been, it would have been this homophonous human-helper) and when the collective “Hot or Not?” verdict came in, it came in the form of ten thousand identical stand-up comic jokes. Segway Incorporated are still in it for the long haul, researching and releasing improved versions which address every technical issue they find – and simply hoping that people get over themselves and get on the damn thing before the Segway HT is sent to play with the Sinclair C5.
3. “Our consumers, who are utilizing PSP as a video player more than ever, are thirsting for more content, particularly short-form videos”
Phil Rosenberg, senior vice president of sales and business development, Sony Computer Entertainment America.
Another case of PR-speak that’s absolutely true as far as it goes and not one micron further. For example: if all five Atari Lynx users were to start using their antique handsets as bookends, then it may be that “Atari Lynx consumers are using their system as literary devices more than ever,” but that still doesn’t mean that there are very many or that it’s a good idea.
UMD Movies have been an unmitigated failure, with even Walmart refusing to stock them anymore – and I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but those guys sell everything. Most of the failure can be attributed directly to Sony. As per usual they just assumed that people would buy their product (apparently suffering from amnesia after the Betamax and Minidisc) and immediately set about crippling their own product to safeguard all the money they were about to earn. You can’t playback UMD movies on a TV because then you wouldn’t buy a DVD, and then a Blu-ray. Sony really did expect you to buy every movie three times and were genuinely shocked when users got upset about that. No blank discs or recorders are available in order to prevent piracy – and I’m sure that move delayed the pirates cracking UMD discs by three, maybe four whole minutes. While simultaneously and permanently crippling the entire user base.
The piracy issue went from bad to embarrassingly stupid when it was revealed that not only could games easily by copied onto the PSP memory stick, but they actually worked FASTER than when on the stupid official UMD discs. Ouch! The only growth industry in UMD movies is one Sony didn’t want, a market in Japanese porn movies. Sony described this “highly undesirable”, possibly forgetting that adult videos were a big part of why VHS flattened them way back when. Though why anybody would want to watch porn on a screen where they have to squint to see anything, other than to authentically recreate that “voyeur” feeling, it unclear.
4. “We are delighted that the HD DVD format has been independently endorsed by Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema, and Warner Bros. Studios.”
Mr. Tadashi Okamura, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation.
The HD-DVD: silver medalist the most recent format war, a contest where everybody except gold is taken out back and shot through the head. It seemed that HD-DVD was off to a flying start – that quote contains some very big names and it was the truth and nothing but the truth. That just leaves a little thing called “the whole truth”, and that’s where things get interesting. There are lots of other big names which had pledged Blu-Ray allegiance, like Walt Disney, 20th Century Fox, Buena Vista pictures – and strangely enough Sony Pictures seemed unwilling to produce HD-DVDs.
The stage was set for a pitched battle that could have rocked the ages except for one tiny thing – the customers just didn’t care. Big business seemed genuinely confused that the peons weren’t lining up, pleading for the chance to buy all their movies again in a slightly different, more expensive format. Frothing technical analyses raged back and forth across the web starkly ignorant of the fact that unless you’re a T800 armed with a precision microscope there is absolutely no difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. In fact, for regular humans, both have to work very hard to prove there’s anything wrong with the DVDs we already own and “Because the people selling the new things say so” doesn’t cut it.
Realizing that they’d thrown a war and nobody was coming Warner Bros took decisive action. The increasingly expensive and pointless conflict didn’t have to be “won”, it had to be OVER and as quickly as possible. In January 2008 they ended it in the form of a massive, WB-logoed dagger in HD-DVDs back by jumping to the Blu-Ray camp. From that point on HD-DVD was a fast-motion recreation of the Titanic with extra ice, and a month later Toshiba raised the surrender flag.
5. “We will make every necessary resource available to ensure a successful launch.”
Carl Freer, Co-founder and Chairman, Gizmondo.
When Carl said that, he wasn’t messing around. Elite London launch offices, an entire agency of beautiful models, wrecked Ferarris and the Swedish Mafia – that’s not just a console launch, that’s a James Bond movie. The Gizmondo company, for those of you not already laughing at the memory, became synonymous with “utterly insane spending” and it was only a “successful launch” in the same way Waterworld was a “successful money-making movie.”
The company went bankrupt after racking up well over three hundred million dollars in losses while selling less than twenty-five thousand units. To put that in perspective, they could have achieved greater sales with lower costs by writing “Gizmondo” on cardboard boxes containing ten thousand dollars each and just giving them out on street corners.
